Last year, the average profitability of sunflower production in the Rostov region fell to 17.3%, marking a decade-long low.
Industry experts estimate that this negative trend could intensify in 2026.
While purchase prices per tonne of sunflower held steady in the 44,000–45,000 ruble range in 2025, they now start at 30,000 rubles on trading platforms, with actual transaction prices dropping to a critical 19,000–20,000 rubles.
Meanwhile, the average production cost for the region’s small and medium-sized farms is approximately 22,000–25,000 rubles per tonne.
Under current conditions, any price below 35,000 rubles means farmers are operating on the verge of zero profitability. To build a financial cushion for spring sowing and offset losses from grain crops, the minimum price offered by oil extraction plants needs to be at least 38,000–40,000 rubles per tonne (including VAT) for a base oil content of 48%.
A Combination of Negative Factors
The drop in sunflower prices—which fell by about 40% in just a month and a half—is largely driven by strict export restrictions.
High duties on raw materials and processed products are exerting significant pressure on domestic pricing.
The situation is further aggravated by a fuel crisis: since late December 2025, retail diesel prices in the country have risen by 15.5%, sharply increasing costs at the peak of the harvest season. The blockade of Azov-Black Sea ports served as an additional destabilizing factor, hindering the shipment of finished goods and forcing processors to lower raw material purchase prices.
Yields as a Source of Optimism
Despite the price slump, oilseeds remain high-margin crops, contrasting with the stagnation seen in wheat and corn markets.
The Rostov region is showing impressive performance this season: the sunflower harvest could exceed 2 million tonnes—nearly double last year’s figure. The region’s average yield has reached 19.3 centners per hectare, up from 10.9 centners per hectare in 2025.
Nationwide, the total harvest (excluding the new regions) is projected at 20.7 million tonnes, an increase of 18.1% year-on-year.
Industry Outlook
High yields could partially offset the decline in profit margins.
However, given the prohibitive export duties on sunflower seeds destined for markets outside the EAEU, Russia’s carry-over stocks of raw materials could exceed 5 million tonnes, against a maximum processing capacity of 16 million tonnes.
Key drivers for restoring profitability are expected to be the export duty adjustments promised by the Ministry of Agriculture and the launch of alternative logistics routes for oil and fat products; these measures should help revitalize domestic demand and boost purchase prices.
