External grain shipments have fallen threefold, while the Baltic basin has captured more than half of all port capacity.
A sharp decline in total shipment volumes
Russian grain exports in the second month of autumn showed a significant drop in volume, falling to one-third of the level recorded during the same period last season.
According to regular monitoring by the relevant industry association, just over 2 million tonnes of grain were shipped to foreign markets via domestic port infrastructure—a sharp decrease from the nearly 7 million tonnes recorded a year earlier.
The decline primarily affected the key food crop: wheat shipments dropped by more than two-thirds. Barley followed a similar trend, with volumes falling nearly 3.5 times, while corn shipments remained at the same level as the previous year.
A shifting map of food-wheat buyers
In October, the number of countries receiving Russian wheat narrowed to nineteen.
Egypt remained the primary importer, though total shipment volumes to the country fell significantly, dropping to 380,000 tonnes. A similar decline was seen in exports to Iran, where purchases fell by more than half.
Meanwhile, Nigeria unexpectedly entered the top three, receiving over 160,000 tonnes of food-grade grain—a notable shift, given that there were no shipments to the country at all last season. Regarding feed crops, Iran remained the main partner; while it slightly increased its corn purchases, it sharply reduced its imports of barley.
Drastic Reduction in the Number of Active Ports
A decline in physical export volumes has led to the optimization of port infrastructure, resulting in a twofold reduction in the number of logistics hubs in use. While grain shipments were handled across 43 seaports last year, the current season has seen exports routed through only 21 ports.
The port of Ust-Luga has unexpectedly surged to the top spot in terms of transshipment volume, handling nearly 700,000 tons of grain—a remarkable shift, given that this hub was not used for such purposes at all in October of last year. It is followed by Astrakhan, which nearly doubled its throughput, and Vysotsk, which also demonstrated significant growth.
A Baltic Triumph and a Downturn for Southern Routes
The primary trend this month has been a major reallocation of cargo flows across the country’s various maritime basins.
Baltic ports have experienced explosive growth, increasing their grain transshipment volume nearly ninefold and securing a dominant market position with a share exceeding 65 percent.
In contrast, ports in the Azov-Black Sea basin—historically the primary gateway for Russian exports, accounting for over 70 percent of the market—have faced a catastrophic drop in volume.
Their combined share of total Russian exports has shrunk to just a few percent; analysts attribute this shift to changes in the cost-effectiveness of domestic logistics and the redirection of cargo flows toward the north.
