Foreign trade in grain is adapting to logistical constraints by rerouting shipments toward the East and the Caspian region.
Shifts in the Ranking of Key Importers
Over the first four months of the current agricultural season, the composition of the primary buyers of Russian grain has undergone notable changes.
According to the latest analytical estimates, the leading export destinations from July to October were Iran, Egypt, and China—the latter having displaced Turkey, a long-standing partner, from the top three.
Iran emerged as the clear leader in terms of purchase volume (excluding pulses), receiving approximately 2.1 million tonnes of product—down from the 2.7–2.8 million tonnes recorded a year earlier.
Egypt took second place with 1.6 million tonnes, compared to 3.5 million tonnes in the previous season.
China showed a significant breakthrough, more than doubling its imports from 350,000 to 800,000 tonnes.
The Balance of Power in the Wheat Segment
In the food-grade wheat segment—the most critical area for domestic exporters—the change in leadership has been equally telling. Egypt continues to hold the top spot by a wide margin, having purchased 1.6 million tonnes of the commodity, though this figure remains substantially lower than the 3.32 million tonnes recorded last year.
Kazakhstan has firmly moved into second place, increasing its imports of Russian wheat more than threefold—from a modest 225,000 tonnes to an impressive 700,000 tonnes. Rounding out the top three is **Nigeria**, which received 680,000 tonnes of grain, up from 510,000 tonnes the previous year. For comparison, in the last season, the top three alongside Egypt included Turkey—with a volume of 2.17 million tonnes—and Libya, which purchased 950,000 tonnes.
A Logistical Shift Toward the Baltic and the Caspian
This change in the geography of buyers is a direct result of a forced restructuring of export logistics and the active development of alternative transport corridors.
Industry experts have noted an unusually high level of wheat shipments through ports on the Baltic and Caspian Seas—where historical transshipment records have been broken for two consecutive months—as well as strong growth in overland shipments to Central Asia.
According to data from an industry association, 1.56 million tonnes of grain were exported via Baltic ports in October—an 8.7-fold increase over the previous year’s figures—accounting for 65.3% of all seaborne exports.
In the Caspian region, the primary growth hubs were Astrakhan, which saw shipments increase 1.7 times to 396,000 tonnes (destined for the Iranian market), and Makhachkala, where volumes doubled to 83,200 tonnes.
Two Scenarios for the Export Season
Given the persistent challenges affecting traditional maritime routes, leading market analysts have adjusted their annual forecasts for Russian grain exports for the 2026/27 season. Under the baseline scenario, the estimate for total grain exports has been lowered from 52.8 million to 49.5 million tonnes, with the forecast for wheat specifically reduced from 42 million to 39.5 million tonnes.
While this scenario assumes a rapid restoration of established export channels, there is increasingly little time left in the season to fully realize that potential.
At the same time, experts have improved the outlook for the so-called «stress scenario,» which assumes that current barriers remain in place. Due to progress made on alternative routes, the estimate for total exports under this scenario has been raised from 35 million to 36.5 million tonnes—including an increase for wheat from 29 million to 30 million tonnes.
