Analysts are downwardly revising their estimates for Russian wheat exports amid risks in the Baltic and Black Seas, even as businesses explore northern routes.
Further adjustments to international and domestic forecasts
In its November report, the relevant U.S. government agency has once again lowered its outlook for Russian grain exports for the 2026/27 season. The estimate for Russian wheat exports has been reduced by 1 million tonnes, bringing the figure to 39 million tonnes.
Foreign experts point to persistent tensions in the Black Sea basin as a key constraint, which continues to hinder established logistics—even with the active use of alternative routes. The forecast for feed crops has seen a minor downward adjustment of 150,000 tonnes, to 7.325 million tonnes.
Russian analytical centers are also revising their expectations: one leading institute has lowered its wheat export projection by 0.7 million tonnes, to 36 million tonnes, while pushing back its baseline scenario for the normalization of shipping in the south from the beginning of the year to the spring of 2027.
Hidden threats to alternative routes
With shipments via the Black Sea stalled at a minimal level of 0.1–0.2 million tonnes per month, alternative corridors are also coming under threat.
The situation surrounding the port of Ust-Luga—currently the primary grain hub in the Baltic, with a monthly throughput of 0.6–0.7 million tonnes—is a source of serious concern. A recent attack on the infrastructure at this hub has underscored the vulnerability of the northern route. Additional pressure is being exerted by the Baltic states: as of November 16, Lithuania is introducing intensified inspections of Russian grain in transit—a measure that could delay shipments for two months or longer—while simultaneously lobbying for a total ban on such transit at the European Union level.
The situation is further complicated by the seasonal closure of river navigation, which will divert cargo flows onto already overburdened railways.
November Trends and Global Price Dynamics
Despite unprecedented logistical barriers, current shipment volumes remain at an acceptable level.
According to preliminary analyst estimates, Russia is set to export between 2.8 and 3.2 million tonnes of wheat in November. While this falls short of last year’s 5.2 million tonnes and the five-year average of 4 million tonnes, it confirms that the new logistical arrangements are functioning.
In October, shipments reached a seasonal peak of 3.3 million tonnes. The primary importers were Egypt (1.7 million tonnes) and Nigeria (0.7 million tonnes), followed by Iran, Azerbaijan, and Kenya, each purchasing 0.6 million tonnes.
Meanwhile, global markets saw a decline in prices between November 4 and 10, driven by strong progress in winter crop sowing in France and improved crop conditions in the United States. On the physical market, the prices for French and Argentine wheat both fell by $6 per tonne, dropping to $255 and $231 per tonne, respectively.
An Arctic Breakthrough: A Pilot Voyage from Murmansk
In response to the blocking of traditional southern and Baltic gateways, efforts are now underway to utilize port infrastructure located above the Arctic Circle. A major seaport in Murmansk has successfully completed loading and dispatched a Handysize-class vessel bound for North Africa, carrying 29,500 tonnes of Russian wheat sourced from key agricultural regions.
To handle this type of cargo—uncommon for the Arctic—port operators promptly adapted the bulk terminal’s facilities. They implemented a direct transshipment process, moving grain from railway hopper cars into the ship’s holds via a surge hopper and mobile conveyors, bypassing the need for warehouse storage.
Following the completion of this voyage and an assessment of its economic viability, the northern port plans to scale up the operation, establishing a new export channel for the agricultural sector with an annual capacity of hundreds of thousands of tonnes.
