Since November 16, export duties from the Russian Federation have dropped noticeably. But this is not enough: farmers are waiting for an increase in the indicative price.
Compared to last week, a significant decrease in export duties on agricultural products is noticeable.
For example, for wheat, it decreased from 3,012 rubles per ton to 2,922 rubles per ton.
For corn, there was a fall several times — from 1114 rubles per ton to 448 rubles per ton.
Only the duty on barley increased: from 2495 rubles per ton to 2686 rubles per ton.
These rates will be valid until November 22.
Why do we need an increase in the indicative price
The indicative price, or cut-off price, is used to calculate the duty.
It is the use of the indicative price that makes the fee a floating indicator: the difference between this price and the current quotations on the exchanges is taken into account.
Accordingly, the greater the difference, the higher the duty.
That is why an increase in such a price would make it possible to significantly reduce the duty, and not for a short time, but on an almost permanent basis.
Now the indicators of the indicative price are as follows:
for wheat — 15 thousand rubles per ton.
for corn and barley — 13.8 thousand rubles per ton.
Many experts agree that this is not enough.
For example, the general director of the analytical company ProZerno, Vladimir Petrichenko, suggests other values: for wheat, the indicative price should be raised to 18 thousand rubles per ton, for corn and barley — up to 15 thousand rubles per ton.
This would allow agrarians to significantly increase their export earnings, as for livestock breeders in the domestic market, the purchase price for them would increase slightly, Petrichenko believes.
At the same time, he stressed that it would be better to abolish duties altogether.
Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Victoria Abramchenko has not yet named any specific figures, but believes that there is a possibility of an increase in indicative prices in the near future.
The grain export quota will be expanded
However, even today, farmers already have good news — they have increased their quotas for the export of grain.
The Ministry of Economic Development supported the level of 25.5 million tons in the period from February 15 to June 30, 2023.
We are talking about exports to countries that are not members of the EAEU. This quota includes wheat, rye, barley, meslin and corn.
This season, the Russian Federation has a huge surplus of crops that cannot be used domestically, we can talk about 50-60 million tons of grain.
With this in mind, 25.5 million tons is not enough.
However, the quota applies only to states that are not members of the EAEU, so the remaining volumes, obviously, can be sold within the Union.
