The US Congress has initiated a bill that will force the US Treasury to take measures to reduce dependence on Russian agricultural products.
At the moment, however, this bill is at a very early stage: it still has to pass both houses of Congress and be signed by the president.
But if this succeeds, the document could turn into a threat to Russian exports of grain, oil and fish, experts say. In particular, it is possible that Russia will have to sell its agricultural products at large discounts, as has already happened, for example, with oil.
However, the wording of the bill is still as vague as possible.
In particular, he instructs the American Ministry of Finance to ensure stability in the world grain market and stimulate private investment in this area.
What is the US concerned about?
Currently, Russia ranks first in terms of wheat supplies to the world market. At the moment, it alone supplies 25% of the total volume.
For comparison: the EU’s share is 11%, the USA together with Canada gives 20%. Australia, Argentina and Ukraine have a total share of 22%.
At the same time, the United States is worried that former Ukrainian regions are being included in the Russian agro-industrial complex, due to which the Russian Federation’s share may soon become even larger.
At the same time, European politicians are closing their own borders to Ukrainian grain, which could further shift the balance in the world market towards Russia.
What could be the real consequences of the bill?
It is quite difficult to predict them.
On the one hand, everything can end in nothing. Even if the law is adopted, Russia has too large a share in the world market (leading), so it is almost impossible to replace it.
On the other hand, many buyers of Russian grain are connected to the global financial system, which can cause difficulties with payments.
At the same time, difficulties of this kind could have been foreseen long ago, so Russia had enough time to prepare for them.
In addition, the Russian Federation is actively increasing mutual settlements in national currencies with many key partners, and this trend will only strengthen.
According to American data, exports of agricultural products from the Russian Federation in 2023 alone amounted to about $45 billion.
Experts note that this is not the first time that US pressure on the Russian agro-industrial complex has occurred.
For example, the United States tried to do this on the white fish market, but Russia overcame the problems and was able to find alternative markets.
With a high probability, this scenario will repeat itself this time.
