The Sovekon analytical center has reduced its forecast values for the wheat harvest in the Russian Federation that can be harvested this season.
Not so long ago, Sovecon assumed that about 94 million tons of wheat would be harvested in Russia this year, but now the forecast has been reduced to 93 million tons. In particular, it is planned that about 68 million tons of winter wheat will be harvested, and about 25 million tons of spring wheat.
The forecast reduction is primarily due to unfavorable weather conditions.
This is especially true for the southern regions of the country, which account for up to 40% of the total volume of grain produced in the Russian Federation, and therefore difficult weather conditions there can significantly affect the overall result.
In particular, today the humidity level in the southern regions is no more than 60-80% of the norm, while the temperature exceeds the average by 2-4 degrees.
Thus, this means that hot and dry weather has set in, which has already affected the moisture deficit in the soil and worsened the condition of the crops. This was precisely the reason for the reduction of the forecast by Sovecon analysts.
At the same time, further development of the situation may follow different scenarios.
“In the coming weeks, the main weather models predict 60-90% of normal precipitation in the South, which, coupled with high temperatures (2-4 °C above normal), will likely not significantly improve the moisture supply of plants in the region.
If we don’t see significant rainfall in the South in the next two to four weeks, the region could face crop failure.
However, this can be partially compensated by the relatively high harvest in the Volga region and the Center, where crop development conditions still look better than average,” Sovecon notes.
Meanwhile, a decrease in the forecast for the wheat harvest in the Russian Federation could have a significant impact, including on world prices for this crop, since Russia is one of the world’s largest exporters of this crop.
In recent weeks, there has already been an increase in export prices for Russian export wheat from $199 to $211, and it is possible that this trend will continue in the future, some experts believe.
At the same time, Russia is also expecting good results for the grain harvest this time.
We are talking about 133-145 million tons, including up to 86 million tons of wheat. Such data is contained in the Central Bank report.
At the same time, the Ministry of Agriculture believes that the grain harvest in Russia this year, excluding new regions, will decrease from 145 million tons to approximately 132 million tons.
