In the 2024-2025 season, it was the Russian Federation that became the leader in terms of wheat supplies to Turkey, overtaking all other countries.
Currently, Turkey’s own grain production has noticeably decreased, mainly due to the difficult weather conditions that have occurred in recent months.
The main problem was the drought and limited rainfall. This could also affect the new year’s harvest, the harvest of which will begin in late spring.
According to the latest data, from October to January, Turkey received 40% less rainfall than the same period a year earlier.
As a result, wheat production in the country fell by 2 million tons compared to last season and amounted to about 19 million tons.
To some extent, the situation is saved by large carryover grain stocks, which increase supply and thereby help maintain more or less affordable prices, preventing them from rising too much.
However, in general, the situation on the grain market is quite unfavorable. For this reason, Türkiye is already reducing exports.
It is planned that if last season the export of wheat and flour amounted to about 10 million tons, now it will not exceed 7 million tons. By the way, it is worth noting that the export of flour mainly concerns products made from imported wheat.
At the same time, wheat imports last year from June to October fell by 40% compared to the same period of the previous year.
However, now there is every reason to believe that imports will grow again, especially if the new season’s harvest turns out to be lower than expected.
According to available data, in July 2023-June 2024, Turkey retained its leadership in the volume of purchases of Russian wheat, having imported about 4 million tons. At the same time, compared to the volumes of the previous season, this decrease is, however, insignificant — about 2%.
As of today, Egypt is in second place in the list of buyers of Russian wheat, and Bangladesh is in third. Algeria and Iran are also in the top 5.
Thus, despite all the existing restrictions, Russia has so far managed to maintain its status as one of the main suppliers of wheat to world markets.
However, experts note that it will not be easy to maintain its leading position due to high competition.
The conclusion of long-term contracts may be one of the factors that will contribute to this. At the same time, such contracts are no less important for buyers, since they guarantee that they will be provided with grain and their food security will remain stable.
