The US Department of Agriculture, based on the latest data, did not change its forecasts for the volume of production and export of wheat from Russia.
In its review for June, the US department noted that in the next season of 2025-2026, wheat exports from the Russian Federation will remain at the level of 45 million tons. This applies to the territory of the country without taking into account new regions.
The European Union can supply about 34.5 million tons abroad.
In third place in terms of export volumes is Canada, which, as the US Department of Agriculture assumes, is capable of exporting 27.5 million tons.
Thus, we see that Russia currently maintains the undisputed leadership in this regard and is ahead of its closest competitor by more than 10 million tons.
As for the wheat harvest in Russia this year, American experts estimate it at 83 million tons. It is noteworthy that this was more than last year: 81.6 million tons.
At the same time, domestic consumption in the country may grow to 39 million tons, and carryover stocks by the end of the new season risk decreasing from 10 million tons to 9.5 million.
Russian experts also give their forecasts. For example, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev recently said that the total grain harvest in Russia this year could amount to about 135 million tons.
Analysts from the Russian Federation predict a wheat harvest of 83 million tons. This is slightly more than the forecast of the US Department of Agriculture.
As for oilseeds, the US department expects the sunflower harvest in Russia to be 17.5 million tons. This is 10% higher than the average for the past 5 years, and new regions are also not taken into account in this forecast.
Since in 2022, the Russian Federation already collected 17.5 million tons (including Crimea), there is reason to believe that this year’s harvest will be even higher than this value.
Overall, Russia may allocate up to 16.7 million hectares to oilseeds this year.
This is roughly the same level as last year. Therefore, the final harvest will most likely remain at last year’s level.
But, as always, much will depend on the weather.
«Poor weather conditions associated with below-average rainfall and excessive heat during the 2024/25 growing season hindered crop growth and resulted in a lower late-season harvest than originally anticipated.
Yields are projected to reach a third-highest level in 2025/26, assuming normal weather and adequate access to agrochemicals, machinery, and high-quality hybrid seeds,» the US Department of Agriculture notes.
