The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has raised its oilseed harvest forecast for Russia to 33 million tons.
According to the latest data, the USDA has revised its sunflower harvest forecast for Russia from 21 million tons to 33 million tons.
This was due to a revision of the sowing area based on the latest information received from Rosstat.
While the sowing area was estimated at 17 million hectares in August, it has now increased to 18 million. The average yield remains estimated at 1.8 tons per hectare.
Furthermore, the USDA has revised its forecasts for other oilseed crops.
For example, the soybean forecast is now 8.3 million tons, up from 8.8 million tons. Here, too, the increase in cultivated area from 4.3 million hectares to 4.6 million is attributable to the increase.
Similarly, the rapeseed harvest has been adjusted to 5.5 million hectares instead of 5.3 million, as the area it occupies has been adjusted: 2.9 million hectares instead of 2.8 million.
Russian analysts generally agree with their American counterparts in their harvest forecasts, despite the fact that the American analysts do not take Crimea and the new regions into account, while the Russian ones do.
For example, the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) estimates that Russia will be able to harvest up to 18-18.2 million tons of sunflower this year. However, unfavorable weather conditions could hinder a large harvest.
Recent data indicate that, for example, in the Southern Federal District, farmers have had to deal with drought this season, which has reduced the sunflower yield. Instead of 18 centners per hectare, producers can now expect only 12 centners.
In the Krasnodar Territory, for example, yields have fallen even further: from 20 to 13 centners per hectare, and in the Rostov Region, from 16 to 8 centners per hectare.
All of this could significantly negatively impact the sunflower harvest, experts warn. It’s possible that unfavorable weather conditions will also impact the results of other oilseed crops, such as soybeans and rapeseed.
Despite this, the overall outlook for the oilseed harvest in Russia remains good.
Farmers are largely counting on other regions to help offset losses in the Southern Federal District.
«Overall, a very high sunflower harvest, close to a record, is expected across Russia this year, as we see the prospect of very good yields in the Central Federal District and the Volga region.
«We’re hoping for good, dry weather during the harvest,» noted IKAR CEO Dmitry Rylko.
