The domestic oil and fat sector is facing a paradoxical situation: oilseed harvest volumes are showing steady growth, yet processing plant utilization continues to decline.
According to OleoScope analysts, by the end of 2026, the average utilization rate of Russian oil extraction plants (OEPs) will fall to 76%, down from 78% last year.
This is due to a structural imbalance: the pace of new production capacity additions is significantly outpacing the growth of the raw material base.
The Paradox of Excess Capacity
According to statistics, the total capacity of domestic processing plants will increase by 9.2% this year, from 34.8 million to 38 million tons.
At the same time, OleoScope estimates that domestic oilseed production will increase by only 5.9%, reaching 28.8 million tonnes (compared to 27.2 million tonnes in 2025).
This observed trend reversal is particularly striking against the backdrop of the historic highs of 2024, when, thanks to record gross harvests and favorable global conditions, refineries processed 28.9 million tonnes of raw material, achieving an unprecedented 90% capacity utilization rate.
Currently, according to estimates by the Oil and Fat Union, the shortage of oilseed raw materials to fully utilize existing refineries will be approximately 2.5 million tonnes.
This is despite experts predicting an all-time record oilseed harvest of up to 35.7 million tonnes (including 19.95 million tonnes of sunflower, 8 million tonnes of soybeans, and 6 million tonnes of rapeseed) amid an expansion of cultivated area to 22.1 million hectares.
Regulatory Levers and Processing Protection
Under the current circumstances, government regulation is becoming a key factor in the survival and redistribution of raw material flows.
Analysts emphasize that tightening customs and tariff policies, in particular, increasing export duties on soybeans, will allow domestic crushing plants to fill their capacity.
This problem is particularly acute in the Far East.
In the 2025/26 season, soybean exports from Russia almost tripled, reaching 1.7 million tons.
At the same time, exporters actively exploited loopholes: less than half of the permitted quota of 500,000 tons was exported at a preferential rate of 5% (the minimum threshold is $25 per ton, valid until the end of 2026 for regions of the Far East).
The main flow, however, went abroad at a rate of 20% ($100 per ton).
The industry association openly states that the current 20% rate is insufficient to protect domestic processors and expects the regulator to increase the soybean duty to 30% in the new season.
This will help balance the market and supply new plants with domestic raw materials.
